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https://www.seagate.com/support/kb/hard-disk-drive-reliability-and-mtbf-afr-174791en/#:~:text=It%20is%20common%20to%20see%20MTBF%20ratings%20between,of%20continuous%20operation.%20This%20is%20not%20the%20case%21
https://www.seagate.com/support/kb/hard-disk-drive-reliability-and-mtbf-afr-174791en/
It is common to see MTBF ratings between 300,000 to 1,200,000 hours for hard disk drive mechanisms, which might lead one to conclude that the specification promises between 30 and 120 years of continuous operation. This is not the case!
https://www.allprotechnologies.com/blog/hard-drive-mtbf-mean-time-between-failures/
24 hours x 365 Days = 8760 Yearly hours. 500K hours / 8760 = 57 years. 8760 x 5 = 43800 [ 5 years of continuous use ] 8760 x 10 = 876000 [ 10 years of continuous use ] For a desktop class hard drive that has a MTBF of 50K hours, you should get 5 years out of it.
https://linustechtips.com/topic/675597-how-many-hours-can-a-hdd-last/
Solution. MTBF doesn't say anything about how long a hard drive will last. In a very simplified way it's something like this... a MTBF of 1.500.000 hours means that if you install 1.500 hard drives somewhere, they estimate that on average you'll have one hard drive dying every 1000 hours (1500 x 1000 hours = 1 500 000 hours).
https://www.seagate.com/www-content/datasheets/pdfs/skyhawk-3-5-hdd-DS1902-15-2009GB-en_AS.pdf
Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) (hours) 1,000,000 hr 1,000,000 hr 1,000,000 hr 1,000,000 hr 1,000,000 hr Warranty, Limited (years) 2 3 Rescue 3Data Recovery Services (years) 3
https://www.ontrack.com/en-au/blog/mtbf-hard-drive-failure-prediction
With consumer hard drives, it’s not uncommon to see MTBFs of around 300,000 hours. That’s 12,500 days, or a little over 34 years. Meanwhile, enterprise-grade HDDs advertise MTBFs of up to 1.5 million hours, which is the best part of 175 years. Could you imagine if these MTBFs were real-world expectations of hard drive longevity and reliability?
https://hardforum.com/threads/mtbf-and-afr-how-long-will-drive-last.1891912/
The production disk drive shall achieve an annualized failure-rate of 0.44% (MTBF of 2,000,000 hours) over a 5 year service life when used in Enterprise Storage field conditions as limited by the following: •8760 power-on-hours per year. •HDA temperature as reported by the drive <= 40°C •Ambient wet bulb temp <= 26°C •Typical workload
https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/how-used-is-a-hdd-with-25-000-hours-but-25-power-on-cycles.2482552/
MTBF is useful as a relative indicator of reliability, if you're comparing apples to apples (for instance, 3.5" enterprise HDDs that are intended to work in given environment conditions, etc.) but even then, it's not actually indicative of how long a drive lasts - the average HDD isn't running for a …
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